3.14 Two type of analyses are of interest in assessing the promotion prospects available to members of a given Service. These are: (a) Analysis of structural ratios and (b) Threshold analysis. These terms will be explained in the following paragraphs.

(a) Structural ratios

In a cadre structure, different grades have different sizes (in terms of number of posts). The ratios between various levels of grades in the Services that is between the sizes of any two grades or combinations of different grades (including the total cadre strength) may be termed as structural ratios. To illustrate, the following are some of the structural ratios which have been found useful in analysing the cadre proposals.

These ratios reveal the type of cadre pyramid that a given service has and indicate the extent of promotional opportunities available to its members. Thus, the higher the ratio between Senior Administrative Grade posts and total cadre strength, the better are the promotional opportunities for members of a given Service especially at the level of JAG. On the other hand, the lower the ratio of JAG posts to time-scale posts, the slower would be the promotion prospects of a new entrant to a Service. However, good structural ratios by themselves cannot ensure smooth promotion of the members of the cadre. In practice it is observed that even with very good structural ratios members of some cadres are stagnating in various grades due to over recruitments in the past. On the other hand, in some cadres with not so good structural ratios, vacancies in the higher grades have remained unfilled due to non-availability of eligible officers. The latter situation is due to past under-recruitments. Over or under recruitments and their bad consequences can be avoided by ensuring regular annual direct recruitment at an optimum fixed rate. In a cadre review, there is little scope for remedying the damages caused to the cadre due to unplanned recruitments in the past.

The internal structure of a service depends on the initial structure and the pattern of subsequent recruitment. It is neither necessary nor desirable to prescribe standard ratios between different levels of the cadre structure of a Service that would satisfy functional requirements and ensure adequate promotional opportunities. Every individual cadre controlling authority will have to carefully consider the cadre structure of the Service under its control on its own merits so as to broadly determine the desirable structure in terms of both functional needs and career opportunities for members of the Service. The basic approach in a cadre review is to balance these two aspects so as to maintain a high level of morale and efficiency consistent with economy.

(b) Threshold analysis

This is an analysis of the time taken by an entrant of a given Service (normally at Junior Time Scale level) to reach different levels of the hierarchy i.e. JAG, SAG etc. The thresholds in a given cadre structure can be derived on the basis of past experience. As regards the future, i.e. the threshold likely to be realised at the end of the review period in a structure under revision, the same will have to be estimated on the basis of the proposed strength of different grades and the latest seniority list of the officers of the Service. Threshold analysis is quite useful in correctly assessing the situation regarding promotion prospects. No norms, however, have been or could be laid down in this regard too. One has to base one's perception on the situation prevailing in a number of other services/cadres particularly those which are functionally or otherwise akin to the cadre under review.

3.15 Creation of new posts or upgradation of existing posts solely for the purpose of improving promotional opportunities without adequate functional justification would severely erode the original role of the Service and impair its effeciency. It is necessary to emphasise that the cadre review is not a vehicle for the fulfilment of career expectations of the Service Officers howsoever legitimate they may be. Adequate functional justification is an essential consideration in the rationalisation of a cadre structure.

3.16 The assumption that every cadre will necessarily grow and that therefore, such a growth has to be provided for cannot be an all time valid assumption.

Stagnation is a relevant ground but cannot be the only ground for creation of posts at higher levels. The problem of stagnation cannot be solved by creating large number of posts at the top which will only mean that as we go along, everybody will be doing work one below his level.

In regard to the stagnation problem, promotion to higher posts must necessarily be based on a rigorous assessment of the record and performance of the officers. Higher levels of productivity should be expected from the employees.